How I choose stocks?

Well many novice investor like me have a clear confusion while choosing a stock even it has qualified on various aspect like financial,valuation,business etc because I not only lack experience but also for an individual it is not possible for me to do the entire market or industry research all the time so my investment ideology is very simple is to follow the Gurus who ever been there in the market for decades.

So my fishing of stocks is as follows :-
1. Follow some legendary investors closely. My personal favorites are Vijay Kedia, Jatin Khemani, Rahul Sararogi, Prashant Jain, Ramadeo Agarwal, Prem Wasta, Sourav Mukherjeea ... considering the veteran like Rakesh Jhunjunwala apart I also like Basant Maheswari and Parinju Vijya a lot and two unknown advisor blogger like aceinvestor and smallcapvaluefind . Apart from that I trusted CRISIL reports and Morgan Stanly value buys into indian equity. And last but not the least Value Picker academy for discussion.
2. So my theory is simple I follow the suggestion or activity by the above Gurus . Validate the financial based on theory suggested by Prof Sanjay Bakshi and Dr Vijay Mallik . Avoid stocks which does not fit the criteria .
3. Avoid leveraged stocks,commodity stocks, capital intensive stocks, wrong capital allocation , wrong product mix , high raw material cost, high payable days businesses.
4. Try to buy mid,small or micro cap among them with a good margin of safety and obviously if it is a secular story and being a market leader in a under penetrated market.

Yup that's it nothing more. Also one must thing I follow is to never do experiment with money which is lesson I have learn from the market after doing too much experiment. You must separate your learning and earning apart. If you have found any good stock over screener or from any other sources you can always follow or analyze it in your leisure time but must not do the mistake to invest in it.

Key thins to follow :-
1. If any good suggestion I have found by the Gurus I simply run my customized screener excel. Then do a bit of analysis to make them fit into my criteria. But definitely not more than 1-2 hr I will spend on them. Also have done few checks on accounting fraud from the AR , the auditor reputation, accounting policies, equity dilution trend etc.
2. If the discussion is available on VP it will be more than good. I put a watchlist to it. Also add Google Alert on that company. Add it to my screener watch list.
3. Search for CRISIL or CARE rating and report. Also find if other stakeholders are good enough[like Morgan Stanly].
4. Follow quarterly results and reports on the business.

Detection of Red Flag in AR and QR

AR:-
1. Contingent Liability and Asset
2. Related Party Transaction[Corporate Guarantee , JV Loan]
3. Gross Property & Plant,Equipment addition[i.e. Gross Asset addition] should match cash outflow for capex addition [i.e. Capex]
4.Subsidiary Earning and Expense.
5. Tangible and Intangible gross block
6. Cash Flow Purchase of Fixed Asset
7. Other Income
8. Check if the increase in fixed asset [From Asset section in BS] and Puchase & Sales of Fixed Asset[From CFI section in BS ] is matching or not.
9. Check Depreciation.
10.  whatever capex (cash outflow in capex) granules did in fy13-15 (520 cr or 89 mn $) , plus $1.5mn (90-100 cr ) related party loan (which infact is a corporate guarantee on a loan that jv company has taken, so its just a guarantee by granules india, not a loan.
11. any intangibles (which again is recognised for auctus pharma acquisition) is all fraud and they all are equal to additional sales figure from fy13-15. So by that thesis, Auctus is only on paper, So basically kee kaa is saying Granules took money from bank for capex n all, did only thoda capex, and rest all is money going out from granules and coming back in the form of additional sales.
[based on tunnelling analysis, the cash outflows from related party loans or related-party investments/capex are re-routedback to the listed company to artificially inflate sales]
12. There must not be ample amount of cash in the account book of the company while they are still paying Debt.
13.
1)Purchase of fixed assets is 11,644.61 lakhs
2 )Addition to gross tangible assets is 3,377.15 lakhs
3) Change in capital work in progress over the previous year is 10,880.24 - 2,929.63 = 7950.61 lakhs
2+ 3 comes up to 11327.76 lakhs which is almost equal to 1.


QR:-
1. RM to Sales Ratio
2. Sales Growth
3. Pledging of Shares by the promoters
4. Equity Dilution [FCCB or Convertible Warrant etc]

http://www.drvijaymalik.com/2015/08/7-signs-to-tell-whether-company-is-cooking-books.html
http://www.safalniveshak.com/value-investing-sanjay-bakshi-way-part-4/
https://fundooprofessor.wordpress.com/2011/04/24/vantage_point/

My Notes

1. Improving inventory turnover ratio and a stable low receivable days [less than 10 days] indicate that the  credit terms with customers are stable over the years.
2. The efficient working capital management by the company has ensured that all its profits have been converted to cash flow from operations.
3. High sales growth [20-25%] with improving OPM indicate that the company has successfully penetrated deeper into existing markets and created opportunities in the new markets. This is a healthy sign for growth of the company.