Dilema while Analysing a Business

1. ROE :- It has been a well known fact that high ROE i.e. above 20% is very good for a company but what if this ROE is inflated? We all know ROE = Net Profit / Average Equity. Now say a company which is having a high Debt say DE > 1 then does the ROE reflect true picture of the company? Not at all. Also if the Tax rate is low (suppose the company is enjoying some tax holiday or a high deferred tax liability ) or the interest rate is low which ultimately make the cost of debt comes down to a very low level then the ROE can be very well inflated. So lets go down to the next tool ROCE.
2. ROCE :- ROCE is the EBIT/ Average Capital Employed i.e. (Average Capital Employed = Average Equity + Average Debt ). So this should give you some better insight but this also can not show the actual insight of the story always.
3. Penetration Vs Replacement Cycle :- We often get confused between this two. We can say a industry is saturated when it's penetration as well as replacement cycle is both high[e.g. :- Mobile Phone]. We can say an industry is secular when it's replacement cycle is low irrespective of it's penetration level [e.g. :- FMCG, Pharma, Electricity etc]. We can say a sector is sun-sign where penetration is low irrespective of the replacement cycle [e.g. :- Two Wheeler sector 9%, Air Conditioner sector 5% as on 2015 ISI reports ].
4. Cost of Capital :- Cost of capital is a very good measure for an estimate of a business running or operating cost i.e. a business must generate more ROCE than it's cost of capital. But this also can be very well inflated . Say a company is not paying out any dividend or gradually decreasing it's dividend payout rate. In that case the cost of capital will be very low and sometimes may even be negative since cost of equity will be negative but this will not give you a real picture of business running cost.
5. Working Capital :- In simple terms it is the day to day running cost of business i.e. current asset - current liabilities. i.e. if the business purchase something on credit and sells it in cash then it will be -ve hence a very good sign of a business. Which is very common for a retail business. But even it this case we have to see the debtor's cycle [in case of +ve working capital because even though it is an asset but the company still have to materialize this into cash ]and creditor's cycle[in case of -ve working capital because ultimately it is a liability] as well.
6. SSGR :- The SSGR stands for the growth rate a company can achieve without making any new investment. But it does not consider the free cash flow. Also negative or low dividend growth rate company could very well inflate this number. So we must consider dividend pay out growth rate and free cash flow along with it.

Learning of 2016

#1. Focus on the growth sector. If the sector is growing or expected to grow at a high pace all the stocks in the sector bound to give good return but remember the growth must be stable or secular.[like Packaging sector, Food Processing sector, Power sector, Auto Ancillary sector, Dairy sector, Retail Sector etc ]
#2. Focus on business model like asset light [like in Pharma sector Caplin Point & Ajanta Pharma gives unparalleled return from any of it's peers due to their major focus into a marketing distribution company than a pharma. This unique business model help them to achieve negative  working capital which is a huge plus ]
#3. Focus on operational efficiency or economy of scale [like Cosmo Films due to it's operational efficiency has been able to earn significance profit growth over small sales growth. Also with it's new product it is able to pass on the raw material (crud oil) price volatility to it's customer ] i.e. the company is having a good operating leverage.
#4. Focus on Operating Leverage [like Wonderella Holiday having asset established with a very nominal maintenance cost ensure high operating leverage ]
#5. Focus on state of the art technology [like SSWL installing new state of the art technology for steel wheel rims is a added advantage over it's competitor ]
#6. Focus on value migration [like SSWL in a JV with Kalnik is setting up Alloy Wheel facility which will be operational from FY17 add high margin to the existing business. Similarly Granules India moving up in the value chain from Pharma API to FPI and FDs will add extra value]
#7. Focus on Niche High Margin Area [like Tata Elxsi in VFX,Embeded Engineering and Persistent in IoT which are the growth driver for next decade. Also like Oncology and CNS drug maker Shilpa & Natco]
#8. Validate your expected growth rate or current growth rate with the Order Book.
#9. Trust the established brand and it's value among the customer[like SSWL, Tata Elxsi etc].
#10. Avoid leveraged sector or company.
#11. Focus on High ROE, ROCE , lean working capital cycle, high free cash flow.
#12. Avoid any company which have retain large cash in account and debt alongside.[like Kitex Garments]
#13. Avoid any company which have large number of revenue coming from one customer or one geographical region. Since any change in the operating business of the customer or any slowdown in the region will drastically effect the company. [like UK region slowdown hit Marksans Pharma, Nokia downturn hit Sasken Communication, VISA project withdrawal hit RS Software etc ]
#14. Look for transparency in the management.
#15. Avoid a company which is into multiple division than to focus on the major portfolio.[Like Lloyd Electric (into high margin Consumer Durable but low margin HAVC as well ), HSIL (into high margin sanitary sector but also having loss making glass division)] 
#16. Look for Value Unlocking [Like Heritage Food which was having many division like Retail, Energy apart from it's main Dairy business but recently their stake sell of Retail business to Future group will have a huge value unlocking opportunity for the investor]

How I choose stocks?

Well many novice investor like me have a clear confusion while choosing a stock even it has qualified on various aspect like financial,valuation,business etc because I not only lack experience but also for an individual it is not possible for me to do the entire market or industry research all the time so my investment ideology is very simple is to follow the Gurus who ever been there in the market for decades.

So my fishing of stocks is as follows :-
1. Follow some legendary investors closely. My personal favorites are Vijay Kedia, Jatin Khemani, Rahul Sararogi, Prashant Jain, Ramadeo Agarwal, Prem Wasta, Sourav Mukherjeea ... considering the veteran like Rakesh Jhunjunwala apart I also like Basant Maheswari and Parinju Vijya a lot and two unknown advisor blogger like aceinvestor and smallcapvaluefind . Apart from that I trusted CRISIL reports and Morgan Stanly value buys into indian equity. And last but not the least Value Picker academy for discussion.
2. So my theory is simple I follow the suggestion or activity by the above Gurus . Validate the financial based on theory suggested by Prof Sanjay Bakshi and Dr Vijay Mallik . Avoid stocks which does not fit the criteria .
3. Avoid leveraged stocks,commodity stocks, capital intensive stocks, wrong capital allocation , wrong product mix , high raw material cost, high payable days businesses.
4. Try to buy mid,small or micro cap among them with a good margin of safety and obviously if it is a secular story and being a market leader in a under penetrated market.

Yup that's it nothing more. Also one must thing I follow is to never do experiment with money which is lesson I have learn from the market after doing too much experiment. You must separate your learning and earning apart. If you have found any good stock over screener or from any other sources you can always follow or analyze it in your leisure time but must not do the mistake to invest in it.

Key thins to follow :-
1. If any good suggestion I have found by the Gurus I simply run my customized screener excel. Then do a bit of analysis to make them fit into my criteria. But definitely not more than 1-2 hr I will spend on them. Also have done few checks on accounting fraud from the AR , the auditor reputation, accounting policies, equity dilution trend etc.
2. If the discussion is available on VP it will be more than good. I put a watchlist to it. Also add Google Alert on that company. Add it to my screener watch list.
3. Search for CRISIL or CARE rating and report. Also find if other stakeholders are good enough[like Morgan Stanly].
4. Follow quarterly results and reports on the business.

Detection of Red Flag in AR and QR

AR:-
1. Contingent Liability and Asset
2. Related Party Transaction[Corporate Guarantee , JV Loan]
3. Gross Property & Plant,Equipment addition[i.e. Gross Asset addition] should match cash outflow for capex addition [i.e. Capex]
4.Subsidiary Earning and Expense.
5. Tangible and Intangible gross block
6. Cash Flow Purchase of Fixed Asset
7. Other Income
8. Check if the increase in fixed asset [From Asset section in BS] and Puchase & Sales of Fixed Asset[From CFI section in BS ] is matching or not.
9. Check Depreciation.
10.  whatever capex (cash outflow in capex) granules did in fy13-15 (520 cr or 89 mn $) , plus $1.5mn (90-100 cr ) related party loan (which infact is a corporate guarantee on a loan that jv company has taken, so its just a guarantee by granules india, not a loan.
11. any intangibles (which again is recognised for auctus pharma acquisition) is all fraud and they all are equal to additional sales figure from fy13-15. So by that thesis, Auctus is only on paper, So basically kee kaa is saying Granules took money from bank for capex n all, did only thoda capex, and rest all is money going out from granules and coming back in the form of additional sales.
[based on tunnelling analysis, the cash outflows from related party loans or related-party investments/capex are re-routedback to the listed company to artificially inflate sales]
12. There must not be ample amount of cash in the account book of the company while they are still paying Debt.
13.
1)Purchase of fixed assets is 11,644.61 lakhs
2 )Addition to gross tangible assets is 3,377.15 lakhs
3) Change in capital work in progress over the previous year is 10,880.24 - 2,929.63 = 7950.61 lakhs
2+ 3 comes up to 11327.76 lakhs which is almost equal to 1.


QR:-
1. RM to Sales Ratio
2. Sales Growth
3. Pledging of Shares by the promoters
4. Equity Dilution [FCCB or Convertible Warrant etc]

http://www.drvijaymalik.com/2015/08/7-signs-to-tell-whether-company-is-cooking-books.html
http://www.safalniveshak.com/value-investing-sanjay-bakshi-way-part-4/
https://fundooprofessor.wordpress.com/2011/04/24/vantage_point/

My Notes

1. Improving inventory turnover ratio and a stable low receivable days [less than 10 days] indicate that the  credit terms with customers are stable over the years.
2. The efficient working capital management by the company has ensured that all its profits have been converted to cash flow from operations.
3. High sales growth [20-25%] with improving OPM indicate that the company has successfully penetrated deeper into existing markets and created opportunities in the new markets. This is a healthy sign for growth of the company.